Stakeholders in Bugisu Question Census Results
The recent census results released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) have sparked controversy in Bugisu subregion, as stakeholders question a reported decline of 300,000 in the Bagisu tribe’s population over the past decade.
According to the 2024 census, the Bagisu population has dropped from 2,390,975 in 2014 to 2,096,149, despite Bugisu's high fertility rate of 5.5 children per woman.
In a region renowned for its rapid population growth, the results have left many residents puzzled.
Bugisu’s fertility rate of 5.5 children per woman is notably higher than that of several other subregions, raising doubts about the reported decline.
For instance, Busoga, with a fertility rate of 4.9, recorded a population increase, and Iteso, with a fertility rate of 5.3, also showed growth in the latest census.
In stark contrast, Bugisu, despite having a higher fertility rate, experienced a significant population decrease.
Comparisons with other regions have intensified skepticism. In Western Uganda, the Banyankole have a fertility rate of 4.8, and the Bakiga have 4.6, yet both regions reported stable or increasing populations.
Such comparisons have led to widespread disbelief about the accuracy of the census figures in Bugisu.
This sharp contrast has raised concerns among Bugisu leaders and residents, who are now questioning the integrity and competence of UBOS.
Many suspect either a hidden agenda or a significant error in the data collection process.
Masiga Steven, Public Relations Officer for the Inzu Yamasaba Cultural Institution, voiced the widespread dissatisfaction within the Bagisu community.
Many residents have turned to social media and local discussion platforms to express their frustrations, with some dismissing the census results as "fake."
Robert Mangali, a resident of Makokha cell in Mutoto Ward, Mbale City, shared his disbelief.
"Based on my experience, these figures don’t make sense," he said.
"In my family, we have lost only my father, yet I’ve added 13 children, not counting those of my brothers and extended family."
His remarks echo the concerns of many residents who feel the census data does not reflect the reality of their communities.
Karim Masaba, a Member of Parliament and a statistician by profession, also expressed doubts. He speculated that either incompetence or a hidden motive may explain the population figures.
"There hasn’t been a major crisis, such as disease or mass migration, to justify a decline of this magnitude," Masaba noted.
He, along with other leaders, is calling for a thorough explanation from UBOS.
Leaders across Bugisu are demanding that UBOS provide a detailed justification for the reported population decline.
They worry that if the issue is not addressed, it could erode public trust in future census efforts and damage the relationship between government institutions and the people.
The controversy over the census figures has sparked ongoing debate, with leaders and residents alike seeking answers to clarify the unexpected findings in a region known for its high fertility rate and robust population growth.
Without a satisfactory explanation, questions about the accuracy of the census may continue to cast a shadow over the results.