WMO Predicts 60% Chance of La Niña by Year-End
La Niña events often bring opposite climate impacts to El Niño, which earlier this year caused widespread extreme weather, including intense heat and heavy rainfall. Although La Niña tends to have a cooling effect on global temperatures, its influence varies depending on factors such as intensity, duration, and interactions with other climate drivers.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced a 60% likelihood of La Niña conditions developing towards the end of 2024, according to its latest climate update released on September 11. La Niña, which refers to the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, could significantly influence global weather patterns.
Currently, neutral conditions prevail, with neither La Niña nor El Niño in place. However, forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts suggest a 55% chance of a transition to La Niña from September to November. The probability of La Niña increases to 60% from October 2024 to February 2025.
La Niña events often bring opposite climate impacts to El Niño, which earlier this year caused widespread extreme weather, including intense heat and heavy rainfall. Although La Niña tends to have a cooling effect on global temperatures, its influence varies depending on factors such as intensity, duration, and interactions with other climate drivers.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that despite the potential emergence of La Niña, it will not reverse the long-term trend of rising global temperatures due to human-induced climate change. “Since June 2023, we have seen an extended period of exceptional global land and sea surface temperatures. Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures,” Saulo stated.
The past nine years have been the warmest on record, despite a multi-year La Niña from 2020 to early 2023. The recent El Niño event, which peaked between November 2023 and January 2024, was one of the five strongest on record. In the months since, neutral conditions have prevailed, but extreme weather events have persisted.
The WMO continues to prioritize its “Early Warnings for All” initiative, which aims to strengthen climate adaptation strategies. Seasonal forecasts and early warnings are crucial for informing government policies and protecting vulnerable populations from the impacts of climate variability.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update further indicates that above-normal sea surface temperatures will persist in most ocean basins. As La Niña develops, regions such as northern South America, the Greater Horn of Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia could experience above-normal rainfall, aligning with typical La Niña effects.
Governments and climate-sensitive sectors are encouraged to stay informed about these forecasts to safeguard lives and livelihoods in the face of changing climate conditions.
